New Model Predicts More Virulent Microbes

Any microbe that killed off its hosts, wouldn’t have survived itself.

Microbes and humans interact in myriad ways, sharing a long history. Many of the most successful microbes are those that inhabit but do not kill their host. Cheaters lose. Tuberculosis settles into the lungs. Helicobacter pylori, the microbe causing ulcers, burrows into the stomach where it thrives on acids. And Salmonella typhi takes up residence in the gallbladder. All of these organisms can persist in our bodies for decades. What explains their success"

The model can be used to better understand microbial responses to a changing human world, says Dr. Blaser. Based on their formulations, our biological future will probably be filled with some “pretty bad epidemics,” says Dr. Blaser. “Our model predicts that as effective population size increases and as immunodeficiency increases due to the spread of HIV infection, and an aging population, there will be more virulent organisms. This is bad news for us.”

As even larger societies developed, more virulent organisms, such as measles, emerged because the population could permit the virus to spread. Our most recent epidemics, including influenza in the early 20th century and AIDS today, involve organisms that can kill millions because these highly virulent organisms have a huge pool of people to infect, and still be transmitted.

According to their theory, small populations select for certain kinds of microbial agents. More than 50,000 years ago, when humans lived as hunter-gatherers in small, isolated groups, the majority of microbes were transmitted within families or were those that would emerge late in life. Microbes that were not lethal were favored because there wasn’t a large reservoir of people to infect. Any microbe that killed off its hosts, wouldn’t have survived itself. H. pylori evolved during this time.

Aporte: Guillermo Figueroa